Rocket Science for the Rest of Us

Art by Marina Muscan

by Walt Staples and Karina Fabian

Happy New Year!  2012 looks to be an exciting time for space.  We'll see commercial and Chinese presence growing in the manned space arena, and unmanned space exploration is forging ahead.  Of course, the political climate may change with the elections coming.  So here are are a few articles to get you ready for 2012:

Snapshot of Most Anticipated Events for 2012:  Commercial space flights to support manned space, Chinese space labs, moon mapping, light sails, asteroid and Mars missions and secret space missions (and you thought the Shuttle was dead.)  Space.com takes you on a whirlwind tour of what to expect this year.

China has big plans for space:  Communist countries have always been big on "Five-year-plans," and China has announced its plans for space through 2016.  It includes more launches "space freighters" and orbiting spacelabs.  The article notes that space is a matter of national pride, but I think the Chinese see a potential market as well.


Presidential Candidates' Stands on Space:  Speaking of "five-year-plans," wouldn't it be nice if the US could hold onto a plan for more than a few years?  Obama made a radical move by putting near-earth space in the hands of commercial industries and turning the government focus to farther out.  Question is, will it stay that way in the next election?  This article shows the space policy stances of the presidential candidates.  Between you and me, I don't see why there has to be opposition on this issue.  Promoting private industry is a Republican thing--why not take the stance that "Well, since Obama sees things our way on this..."

On Monday, the Chinese announced another successful docking maneuvers with their own space station, which they launched in October.  They have two spacecraft in orbit right now, and are working on docking them.  They had their first successful dock on Nov 2 and another on Nov. 14.  This is important since they not only need to perfect docking in order to supply and man the station (both ships are unmanned right now), but also to build the station itself.

This is big news, and a potential game changer in the space race.  After all, the ISS was the combined effort of five nations and is only supposed to operate until 2015, although it's been extended to 2020. That doesn't mean the station is falling part, necessarily, but it is getting older; meanwhile, the Chinese have a brand-spanking new one, built on the lessons we've been learning.  Also, while we have to work with upwards of fifteen other nations who all have a stake in what goes on, China is going solo.  That's gotta cut the bureaucracy between wanting to do something and actually doing it.  Of course, that also means that if something fails, they are on their own.

We have a fairly strict policy about sharing technology with China, but there's a move within the Obama Administration to loosen that up.   On the one side are those who say we can get some useful scientific information, including orbital debris telemetry, according to NASA.  (Of course, while having China's help in might be nice, we have agreements with Australia for tracking, but nothing is build yet.  On the third hand, while other nations have tracking radars, we don't use their data, either, even that of our allies.  Why, then, trust China's?)  On the other side is the reminder that China is a Communist nation with a history of human rights violations.  Do we really want to do anything to help that nation continue if we don't have to?

What would happen if we did increase our technological exchange--will we support their station, purposefully or inadvertently?  Will we coax them into a second ISS?  (Must say, sounds like they are pretty proud of going on their own.)

Regardless, low earth orbit looks to get a little more interesting.  It's a big orbit out there, but imagine if their efforts start a new space race?  Will our astronauts need to start learning Chinese?

If so, I'd like to recommend episodes of Firefly as a start. And here's a handy Mandarin phrase guide from the Firefly Wiki.

Last week, China launched an unmanned module as the first step toward its own space station.  Called Heavenly -Palace 1, it's an unmanned lab about the size of a bus which they will use to practice docking and maneuvers in preparation for launching its own space station somewhere around 2020.  They still have a long way to go, but they also have 40 years of our mistakes to learn from.  The way will be much faster for them.

This may be the look of the future for non-Terran humans.

China has ambitious plans for its space program, and they have some advantages that we don't.  For one thing, they can make a long range plan and stick with it.  When's the last time that's happened in the American Government?  Remember how Obama canceled the program begun in the Bush administration to build a replacement for the shuttle, supposedly to put that job in the hands of commercial interests, only to turn around and start a new rocket program a year later?  At least we're doing both, but let's face it--government space programs are as much or more about creating or preserving jobs as getting Out There.  The Chinese just want to get there.

They say they can do it cheaper, and no argument there.  It isn't just about them being able to learn from us (their capsule is based on Russian technology, BTW), but also because they aren't dealing with the fat-cat economic system and behemoth-sized bureaucracy we gripe about but do nothing to fix.  (And if that makes you want to swear, check out these Chinese curses used on Firefly.  These were imagined in English, then translated into Mandarin, so that's good ol' American ingenuity there.  Some are the usual profanity, but I give explosive diarrhea of an elephant two thumbs up.)



Is American Space doomed?  Nah.  We're still in the lead and if we decide to take them up on a new Space Race, I believe the government would rise up to the challenge.  However, I don't think we'll need that.  I firmly believe that commercial space will get us there cheaper and faster than the government can.  And I think they'll have greater motivation, too.  We don't want the Chinese to take over the space market like they've taken over the curio/souvenir/mass produced drek market.

We'll do this for space, too, if you let us.  No problem,