I saw this interesting analysis of the commercial space launch industry in Aviation Week: http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/AW_04_16_2012_p40-444890.xml. This is a 4-page article that’s definitely worth reading,
esp. if you’re interested in the commercial space ventures and why the government
should continue to support commercial space ventures through NASA’s COTS
program. However, here’s the down-low:
--NASA’s spent about $925 million dollars in seed money to
commercial space ventures. This has
helped private space companies (like SpaceX, which is closest to its goal) to
develop.
--As commercial companies become successful, they will drive
down the cost of launches across the board as other companies work to keep their
part of the market share.
--Big government contractors will also have to innovate in
order to keep up.
--One example of innovation is the use of less expensive but
more sophisticated safety systems, like escape systems. These will rely more heavily on computer
decisions to abort because the decision needs to be made so quickly to save the
crew.
--The Atlas V is still a popular choice for launch vehicles because
it’s reliable, it does the job, and it’s available. Boeing and United Launch Alliance are using
the Atlas V. Since the Atlas is already
used by the Air Force, using it for manned space will also mean more being
produced, which lowers costs.
--SpaceX, of course, built its own rocket, the Falcon 9
itself, starting out with the intention of making it man-rated according to the
Space Act Agreement, but it needs an upgrade to meet the Federal Acquisition
Requirements for man-rating . (It doesn’t
say why the Space Act requirements and
FAR are not the same. May I suggest government bureaucracy?)
--NASA has funded several programs for its “base period;”
after which, it has an optional period where it will evaluate the competitors
and decide who it wants to work with in the longer run. Those will be the ones they work with fully
man-certifying the launch vehicles.
--Just an aside, but Sierra Nevada is being bankrolled by
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. It’s
interesting to me how many Internet business billionaires are funding
commercial space. Is it the geek
factor? If so, go, geek factor!
--Even if NASA were to only select one contractor for its
manned space missions, it still wins because companies will have developed
rockets that can carry unmanned capsules or launch other things into space.
--NASA asked for $830 million to invest in commercial crew
launch. Despite Obama’s promise to support
commercial space, it was cut to $406 million, less than half of what they asked
for and half of what they used the year before.
That’s going to delay commercial manned flights to the ISS by at least a
year. (During which time, we will
continue to fund Russia’s space program.
--However, NASA isn’t the only potential customer for manned
spaceflights. Bigelow is continuing to perfect
its inflatable space habitats, which could be used for tourism, science &
industry, and other nations that don’t have enough resources of “lack the
wherewithal to develop their own space laboratories.” Sierra Nevada, meanwhile, is working on a
shuttle-type system with the eye on satellite-servicing.
Although Aviation Week says the NASA investment will “pay
off as soon as” April, they were not speaking financially. Rather, they see the program as having sparked
a space-launch market that didn’t exist before (that of manned space
launch.) Time will tell if this market
can bear the industry being built. Most
likely, we will see companies rise and fall, just like in any industry, as new
technology and new approaches (not to mention marketing) are tried. It will also depend on whether there are
customers enough for this market. It may
be a “cottage industry” for awhile, until we find a way to make it truly
profitable.
Just a note: SpaceX has delayed its launch until early May. They have to get this one right, so they're being extra-careful. http://www.space.com/15392-spacex-dragon-launch-delay-announced.html
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